Global Coffee Roundup: 21st - 27th October 2025

What a week it's been in the coffee world! From market rollercoasters to exciting developments in Indian coffee, October 21-27 delivered plenty of buzz-worthy moments. Let's dive into the key happenings that shaped our beloved coffee industry this week.

Market Mayhem: Prices Hit Five-Week Highs

The coffee markets were anything but sleepy this week. Here's what kept traders on their toes:

Tuesday's Big Rally: Coffee futures across both major exchanges surged on October 23rd, with robusta futures climbing 2.58% to $4,739 per metric ton on the London exchange. Meanwhile, arabica futures posted their fourth consecutive day of gains, rising 1.77% to settle at 420.85 US cents per pound.

Historic Inventory Lows: ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 19-month low of 467,110 bags, while robusta inventories hit a three-month low. When supply gets this tight, prices naturally respond.

The Brazil Factor: Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, cut their 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags. That's a significant reduction that's got everyone's attention, especially since Brazil supplies about one-third of America's unroasted coffee.

Tariff Troubles Continue

The 50% US tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, introduced back in August, continues to shake up supply chains. Here's the latest:

• American buyers have been voiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases

• Commercial and specialty coffee shipments from Brazil to the US have taken sharp hits

• There's some hope on the horizon though – Brazilian exporters are actively seeking relief, and there were reports of "very positive talks" between US Trade Representative Greer and Brazilian officials

But wait, there's more tariff drama brewing. President Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on Colombia soon, which sent prices rallying on Tuesday since Colombia is the world's second-largest arabica producer.

Weather Watch: Typhoon Threatens Vietnam

Mother Nature threw her hat in the ring this week with Typhoon Fengshen threatening Vietnam's coffee regions. The meteorological agency warned of heavy rains that could cause flash floods and landslides in the Central Highlands – Vietnam's key coffee-growing area. This threat was a major factor behind Wednesday's price surge.

On a brighter note, Vietnam's January-September 2025 coffee exports increased 10.9% year-over-year to 1.230 million metric tons, providing some supply relief for the robusta market.

Brazil got some much-needed rain after a prolonged drought, with Minas Gerais receiving 136% of its historical average rainfall. However, agronomists are cautious about whether coffee trees can fully recover before the 2025 harvest.

India Spotlight: Modi Highlights Coffee's Global Rise

Now for some exciting news from home! Prime Minister Modi recently highlighted how Indian coffee is gaining serious traction globally, and we couldn't be more thrilled about this recognition.

PM's Coffee Vision: Modi emphasized India's potential to become a major player in the global specialty coffee market. He pointed out how our unique growing conditions and traditional farming methods are creating coffees that the world is starting to notice and appreciate.

Export Success Story: Indian coffee exports have been showing impressive growth, with specialty coffee leading the charge. Our beans are finding their way into discerning cups across Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific markets.

Regional Diversity Shines: What makes Indian coffee special is its incredible diversity across regions:

• Karnataka: The heavyweight champion, producing about 70% of India's coffee with famous regions like Coorg and Chikmagalur

• Tamil Nadu: Known for its high-altitude arabica from the Nilgiris and unique monsooned beans

• Kerala: Bringing us Wayanad's rich, full-bodied arabica and robusta blends

• North-East: Emerging regions producing some surprisingly excellent specialty grades

• Koraput, Odisha: Our tribal coffee that's gaining recognition for its unique flavor profile

Quality Over Quantity: India might produce around 350,000-400,000 metric tons annually (compared to Brazil's millions), but our focus on quality and sustainable practices is what's setting us apart in the global market.

Looking Ahead: What's Brewing

As we wrap up this eventful week, here are some trends to watch:

La Niña Alert: NOAA increased the likelihood of a La Niña weather system from October to December to 71%. This could bring dry conditions to Brazil, potentially affecting the 2026/27 crop – something worth keeping an eye on.

Global Arabica Deficit: Industry projections show a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than previously forecast. This supply-demand imbalance could continue supporting prices.

Trade Negotiations: With ongoing discussions between the US and Brazil about tariff relief, any developments here could significantly impact market dynamics.

The Bigger Picture

What's fascinating about this week is how it perfectly illustrates the interconnected nature of our global coffee community. A typhoon in Vietnam affects London futures, tariffs in America impact Brazilian farmers, and Indian coffee gains global recognition – it's all connected.

For coffee lovers, these market movements might seem distant, but they ultimately affect what ends up in our cups. The good news? Despite all the volatility, global demand remains strong, and quality coffee – like what we're seeing emerge from India – continues to find its audience.

Innovation in the Supply Chain

This week also highlighted some interesting supply chain innovations. Several roasters announced new direct-trade partnerships, particularly with Indian and Ethiopian farmers. These relationships are becoming increasingly important as the industry focuses on sustainability and traceability.

The specialty coffee segment continues to grow, with consumer willingness to pay premium prices for unique origins and processing methods. This trend particularly benefits countries like India, where diverse microclimates and traditional processing methods create distinctive flavor profiles.

What This Means for Coffee Culture

The developments this week reflect broader shifts in global coffee culture. Consumers are becoming more sophisticated, seeking not just caffeine but stories, sustainability, and unique experiences in their cups.

India's rising profile in this context is particularly exciting. Our coffee heritage dates back centuries, but only now is the global market truly appreciating what Indian terroir can offer. From the tribal farmers of Araku Valley to the established estates of Coorg, each region brings something unique to the table.

As we look toward the rest of 2025, the coffee industry seems poised for continued evolution. Market volatility might create challenges, but it also opens opportunities for quality-focused producers and innovative supply chain solutions.

The week of October 21-27, 2025, will be remembered as another chapter in coffee's ongoing global story – one where traditional origins like Brazil continue to dominate headlines, while emerging players like India step into the spotlight they've long deserved.

Stay tuned for next week's roundup, and remember – every cup tells a story of farmers, weather, markets, and passion coming together from around the world.