Global Coffee Roundup: 23–29 September 2026

The global coffee market had a softer week from 23–29 September 2026. Arabica and robusta futures both ended lower, although robusta recovered sharply late in the week. Brazil’s large crop continued to weigh on prices, while low certified arabica stocks, changing weather patterns and new traceability requirements kept the wider outlook mixed.

At farm level, conditions varied widely. Some regions received helpful rain, while others faced drought, hail, heat or pest pressure. Here’s what shaped the coffee industry during the week.

Prices & market

Coffee futures ended lower overall, but the market remained sensitive to short-term supply news and weather reports.

• Arabica ended the week down 9.25 cents per pound. The second-position March contract closed at 271.25 cents per pound, after prices traded near 275 cents in the middle of the week.

• Robusta fell by $114 per tonne, equivalent to approximately 5.15 cents per pound, and the January contract closed at $3,342 per tonne.

• London robusta touched a three-month low before rebounding by more than 2.4% on Friday, 25 September, as traders covered short positions.

• Large funds reduced long positions and added shorts, although they remained net long overall.

The week showed a clear contrast between futures pricing and the physical market. Futures declined as traders focused on improving supply prospects, but differentials for physical coffee firmed in several origins:

• Brazilian 3/4s traded around minus 25.

• Honduras HG reached approximately plus 22.

• Kenya AB FAQ remained steady at plus 70 to plus 75.

• Colombian UGQ strengthened slightly to around plus 73.

Brazil remained central to the supply story. Brazil’s national supply agency, CONAB, raised its estimate for the 2026 crop to 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% year on year.

The estimate included:

• 48.2 million bags of arabica, up 34.8%.

• 19.4 million bags of robusta and conilon, up 6.6%.

• Harvest progress of approximately 99%.

• A planted area of 2.35 million hectares, up 4%.

The crop was expected to be Brazil’s largest since 2020.

The International Coffee Organization also forecast a record global crop of 183.6 million bags for 2025/26. Consumption was estimated at 180.7 million bags, down 0.8%. That combination suggested a more comfortable global supply balance, which added pressure to futures.

However, exchange stocks told a different story. ICE-certified arabica stocks remained close to historic lows, while robusta stocks stood around nine-and-a-half-month highs. This helped explain why nearby physical coffee continued to attract support even as futures weakened.

Vietnamese export prices eased modestly on 26 September:

• Robusta wet-polished screen 18: €4.40 per kilogram, down from €4.45.

• Robusta screen 16: €4.10 per kilogram.

• Unwashed screen 18: €4.05 per kilogram.

• Arabica grade 1: €7.80 per kilogram.

Domestic prices in Vietnam fell to a three-month low, and many farmers continued to hold back stocks rather than sell into weaker conditions.

Coffee remained deeply embedded in daily life despite the market volatility. Research from the British Coffee Association indicated that UK consumption had reached approximately 103 million cups a day, compared with 98 million in 2018. Around 67% of UK adults drank coffee daily, 29% had three or more cups, and people aged 18–34 had out-drunk the over-55s for the first time.

Events & expos

Coffee Europe Expo wrapped up in Nadarzyn, Poland, from 15–17 September. The event brought together roasters, equipment suppliers, café professionals and other businesses from across the European coffee industry.

Its focus included:

• Coffee sourcing and processing.

• Roasting and brewing equipment.

• Café operations and hospitality.

• Packaging and supply-chain services.

• New developments in specialty coffee.

The international events calendar then moved towards a busy October and November programme.

October events

• Indonesia Coffee Festival: PIK 2, Indonesia, 9–11 October.

• Café & Coffee Experience: Brisbane, Australia, 12–13 October.

• SCAJ: Tokyo Big Sight, Japan, 14–17 October.

• Cafés de Colombia Expo: Bogotá, Colombia, 15–18 October.

• International Coffee Convention: Trieste, Italy, 19–20 October.

• TriestEspresso Expo: Trieste, Italy, 21–23 October.

• World of Coffee: Panama City, 23–25 October.

• East Africa Coffee Markets and Conference: Nairobi, Kenya, 28–30 October.

• Coffee Expo Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 29–31 October.

World of Coffee Panama was expected to attract approximately 13,000 attendees and more than 320 exhibitors from over 30 countries. Its location in a coffee-producing country gave the event a strong focus on origin, farming, processing and producer–buyer relationships.

Three major events were also scheduled for November:

• Seoul International Café Show: 11–14 November.

• Brazil International Coffee Week: Belo Horizonte, 11–13 November.

• Taiwan International Coffee Show, Taipei, 13–16 November.

Farm-level news from major producers

Weather and crop conditions remained uneven across the major producing countries.

Brazil

Brazil’s harvest was essentially complete, with the Cerrado Mineiro region at approximately 99% completion. The record crop was expected to provide significant exportable supply, although winter rains slowed drying in some areas and affected premium quality.

Hail also hit at least ten municipalities in southern Minas Gerais, including:

• Varginha.

• São Tomé das Letras.

• Alfenas.

• Três Corações.

Early estimates suggested losses of 15–20% in affected areas, with concerns extending into the 2027 crop. At the same time, beneficial rain encouraged widespread flowering. Conditions over the following three to four weeks were expected to be particularly important for the next production cycle.

Vietnam

Scattered seasonal showers affected Vietnam’s Central Highlands but did not create any major weather extremes during the week. The rainfall supported cherry development and had a broadly neutral effect on prices.

Farmers remained reluctant sellers as domestic prices approached three-month lows. The next major focus was the development of the new crop and whether later weather conditions would affect harvesting, drying and processing.

Colombia

Colombia’s main 2026/27 harvest was about to begin. Full-year 2026 production was expected to reach approximately 12.5 million bags, around 8% below the previous year.

Weather and pest pressure had raised concerns about quality in some growing areas. The coming harvest was therefore expected to be watched for both volume and cup consistency.

Ethiopia

High cherry prices squeezed exporter margins, particularly for washed coffee, which carried higher processing costs.

Ethiopia also continued rolling out a national traceability platform. Exporters increasingly looked towards China as a destination market while preparing for the European Union Deforestation Regulation deadline.

Uganda

Prolonged drought and heat reduced processing yields and quality by approximately 10%. July export volumes fell by around 15%.

The conditions highlighted the pressure that extreme weather placed on both farm productivity and post-harvest handling, especially when coffee cherries developed unevenly or processing water became harder to manage.

India

Arabica harvesting started early in Kodagu and Chikkamagaluru because of dry weather and intense sunshine. Peak picking was expected during November and December, with exports likely to begin from December.

The Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimate placed Karnataka’s 2026/27 arabica production at 84,015 tonnes. Growers continued to flag erratic rainfall and the risk of white stem borer.

Other developments included:

• The Coffee Board worked on organic nutrient mixes for tribal growers.

• A new sustainability certification framework remained under development.

• A proposed Rs 2,500-crore, decade-long climate-resilience plan for Wayanad remained under discussion.

• The Araku Valley retained its long-term ambition of reaching 50,000 tonnes by 2047.

Sustainability watch

The European Union Deforestation Regulation remained one of the coffee industry’s most important long-term changes.

Under the current schedule:

• The regulation applied to large and medium operators from 30 December 2026.

• Micro and small enterprises followed from 30 June 2027.

• Soluble coffee came under the regulation from 30 December 2027.

• Operators needed to provide geolocation information for coffee-producing land.

• Farms above four hectares required polygon data, while farms of four hectares or less could use point coordinates.

Vietnam continued building capacity for EUDR compliance. Ethiopia rolled out its national traceability platform, while Colombia was considered relatively well placed because of its established digital systems.

Trade relationships also influenced sustainability and market diversification. Kenya’s coffee exports to China surged by approximately 140% after a zero-tariff deal. Ethiopia and Kenya both continued looking towards China as an increasingly important market alongside Europe and North America.

Traceability was becoming more than a compliance exercise. It involved farm mapping, land-use records, digital databases and closer communication between farmers, exporters, importers and roasters.

What it meant for coffee drinkers

Exchange prices didn’t translate directly into the price of a cup. Roasting, transport, wages, rent, equipment, packaging and café operations all affected what consumers paid.

Still, the week’s news offered a useful reminder that every cup connected drinkers with farmers, exporters, weather patterns and global trade.

A few simple habits helped make that connection more meaningful:

• Look for the origin. Check whether the coffee named its country, region, farm or producer group.

• Buy traceable coffee. Clear sourcing information made it easier to understand where the coffee came from.

• Try different Indian regions. Araku, Chikkamagaluru and Coorg offered different growing conditions, processing styles and flavour profiles.

• Store coffee carefully. Keep beans in an airtight container away from heat, light and moisture.

• Buy only what you’ll finish while fresh. Smaller quantities helped protect flavour and reduce waste.

For readers beginning to explore Indian-grown coffee, Woodpeckers Coffee’s origin selection offered one place to start.

The week ended with weaker futures, a record Brazilian crop outlook and continued uncertainty around weather. At the same time, traceability, origin transparency and climate resilience moved further into the everyday conversation around coffee.

For drinkers, that meant there were more reasons than ever to ask where their coffee came from, and how it reached the cup.