Global Coffee Roundup: Week of Jan 27 – Feb 2, 2026

Welcome back to another week of what's brewing in the global coffee world. If you're like us, you probably start your morning with a cup and end it wondering what's happening on the farms and trading floors that make it all possible. This week had plenty of action: from price rallies to production records. Let's break it down.

Prices Keep Everyone on Their Toes

Arabica's been flirting with the $4/lb mark, and it's not backing down. On January 27, both arabica and robusta futures climbed as the US dollar weakened to a four-month low. March arabica futures closed up 1.52%, while robusta gained 1.33%. By February 2, prices had settled a bit at 335.37 USD/lbs: still up 0.94% from the day before, but down 6.67% over the month and 12.78% compared to last year.

What's driving this? A mix of things. Brazil's currency (the Real) has been strengthening, making their exports pricier. Add to that ongoing supply concerns: especially for arabica: and you've got a market that's jumpy but fundamentally tight.

The good news? Traders are starting to focus more on actual supply and demand instead of pure speculation. That's a healthier sign for everyone from roasters to your local café.

Record Production on the Horizon

Here's something to smile about: the USDA's forecasting a record global coffee production for 2025/26 at 178.8 million bags. That's a lot of coffee.

Brazil's leading the charge with robusta production hitting an all-time high of 25 million bags. Their arabica crops are recovering from last year's drought, which is a relief for everyone who depends on Brazilian beans (spoiler: that's most of us).

Vietnam's not sitting still either. Their production forecast jumped 6% to around 30.8 million bags (or 1.76 million metric tons if you prefer). What's really exciting is the shift toward sustainable farming practices across Vietnamese coffee farms. It's not just about quantity anymore: quality and environmental responsibility are moving to the front.

The Origin Stories

Let's zoom into what's happening on the ground in some of the world's top coffee-producing countries.

Indonesia: Robusta Boom

Indonesia's having a stellar year for robusta. Output surged by 1.7 million bags thanks to favorable weather conditions. When the rains come at the right time and temperatures cooperate, the coffee trees respond beautifully. Indonesian farmers are reaping the rewards of a season where nature was on their side.

Ethiopia & Uganda: Breaking Records

Ethiopia and Uganda are both hitting record numbers this season. Ethiopia's known for its incredible arabica: those bright, fruity notes you find in specialty coffees: and this year's harvest is exceptional. Export revenues are climbing, which means better returns for farmers and more investment back into the land.

Uganda's robusta production is also smashing previous records. The country's been working hard to improve processing and quality control, and it's paying off with stronger demand from international buyers.

Vietnam: The Sustainability Shift

We mentioned Vietnam's 6% production increase, but it's worth digging deeper. Vietnamese coffee farming is undergoing a transformation. More farms are adopting shade-growing techniques, reducing chemical inputs, and focusing on soil health. It's a long-term play that'll benefit both the environment and the quality of the beans coming out of the region.

This matters because Vietnam supplies a massive chunk of the world's robusta. As they level up their practices, we all win: roasters get better beans, farmers get better prices, and the planet gets a bit of breathing room.

Tech, Retail, and Innovation

Coffee isn't just about farms and futures markets. There's a whole ecosystem of innovation happening right now.

Acaia's New Pyxis Black Scale

For the gear nerds out there (and we know you're reading), Acaia just dropped the Pyxis Black scale. If you're serious about precision brewing: whether at home or in a café: this thing's getting rave reviews for its accuracy and sleek design. It's another reminder that specialty coffee is as much science as it is art.

Espressolab Expands to Bali

Turkish coffee chain Espressolab is opening locations in Bali, bringing their signature blends and café culture to one of Southeast Asia's hottest tourist destinations. It's a smart move: Bali's coffee scene has been exploding, and locals and visitors alike are hungry for quality espresso experiences.

Starbucks Goes AI

Starbucks announced they're overhauling their supply chain with AI-driven reforms. We're talking predictive analytics for inventory, smarter routing for deliveries, and better demand forecasting. Love them or not, when the world's biggest coffee chain makes a tech move this big, it ripples through the entire industry. Expect other large-scale roasters and retailers to follow suit.

The Long Game: $238 Billion by 2031

Let's talk big picture. The global coffee market is projected to hit $238 billion by 2031. Two segments are leading the charge: ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee and specialty coffee.

RTD is booming because people want convenience without sacrificing quality. Canned cold brews, nitro coffees, and premium bottled lattes are showing up everywhere from gym bags to office fridges.

Specialty coffee is growing because consumers are getting smarter. They want to know where their beans come from, how they're processed, and what makes them special. Transparency and quality are the new currency in coffee.

A Week of Contrasts

This week also reminded us that coffee isn't just about beans and business: it's about people. Workers at a Texas coffee chain walked out in protest of immigration enforcement policies. It's a stark reminder that the folks who grow, process, roast, and serve our coffee deserve fair treatment and respect. The industry can't thrive without them.

What This Means for You

Whether you're a roaster, a café owner, or just someone who loves a good cup, here's what to keep an eye on:

• Prices might stay volatile in the short term, but fundamentals are strong. If you're buying beans, consider locking in contracts now before arabica pushes higher.

• Sustainability is no longer optional. Consumers are asking questions, and origins like Vietnam are showing that eco-friendly farming can scale.

• Technology is reshaping the game. From AI supply chains to precision scales, the tools are getting better. Don't sleep on innovation.

Final Sip

It's been a week of highs and lows, records and rallies. Brazil's bouncing back, Vietnam's leveling up, and the market's inching toward a more balanced future. If there's one takeaway, it's this: coffee is resilient. The people, the plants, the passion: it all keeps moving forward.

We'll be back next Tuesday with another roundup. Until then, keep your grinder clean and your cup full.

Want to explore more about what's happening in the coffee world? Check out our latest news and insights or browse our selection of green coffee beans if you're ready to roast your own.