Global Coffee Roundup: 14–20 October 2026

From a strong arabica rally to fresh origin and sustainability developments, this week’s coffee news reflected a market balancing tight nearby supply against the hope of new-crop arrivals. Producers, traders and roasters were also looking ahead to a busy run of coffee events across Asia, Europe and Africa.

Prices & market

Arabica futures had their strongest week in a while. ICE December arabica closed on Friday, 16 October, near 305.6 cents per pound, up roughly 6% for the week. It gained about 3.65% on Friday alone. Earlier in the week, the December contract settled at 292.70 cents after a 0.7% rise.

Prices climbed further on Tuesday, 20 October. One report put arabica at 315.85 cents per pound, a one-month high, as traders weighed weather risks alongside tight certified stocks. Business Recorder reported on the one-month high.

Robusta was steadier. ICE November robusta closed around $3,422 per tonne, essentially flat for the week after a midweek dip was reversed. ICE-monitored robusta stocks rose to 5,752 lots on 16 October, an 11-month high.

Several supply signals helped shape the market:

• Colombia’s Coffee Federation reported that 2025/26 production fell 15% year on year to 12.65 million bags, the country’s smallest crop since 2022/23. Exports fell 12% to 11.78 million bags.

• ICE-certified arabica stocks slipped to 238,976 bags, down from 260,654 the previous week and not far above a 27-year low of 217,646.

• Traders continued to price in El Niño risks, including disrupted rainfall during flowering in Brazil and greater dryness across Central America.

• Brazil’s green coffee exports recovered only modestly in September, up 3.1% to 3.89 million bags. Arabica shipments fell 7.1%, despite the record harvest.

• In Vietnam, domestic robusta prices were broadly steady but edged down by 100–200 VND/kg during the week, to around 92,100–93,000 VND/kg.

For context, the International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator averaged 262.18 cents per pound in September, down 8.7% from August as Brazil’s record crop reached the market. There was no new monthly ICO report this week. The contrast is worth noting: recent harvest supply has eased pressure, but tight arabica stocks and weather concerns have helped prices turn higher again.

Events & expos

Coffee professionals gathered in Tokyo for SCAJ 2026, held at Tokyo Big Sight from 14–17 October. With the theme “Brew the Future,” the event brought together around 500 exhibitors across 20,000 square metres, with approximately 45,000 visitors, according to organiser figures. SCAJ’s event coverage offers more on Japan’s specialty coffee gathering.

HOTELEX Shenzhen also ran from 13–15 October, with around 200,000 square metres of exhibition space, more than 2,000 exhibitors and over 150,000 trade visitors.

The calendar stays busy through the end of the month:

• TriestEspresso Expo, Trieste, Italy: 21–23 October, preceded by the International Coffee Convention on 19–20 October.

• World of Coffee Panama: 23–25 October.

• Spain AeroPress Championship final, Madrid: 24 October.

• China AeroPress Championship, Guiyang: 26–28 October.

• East Africa Coffee Markets and Conference, Nairobi: 28–30 October.

• Coffee Expo Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City: 29–31 October. Its tenth edition expects around 175 brands, 350 booths and 10,000 visitors, with free entry.

There was plenty happening beyond the event floor. Italy launched an international coffee strategy in Rome on 14 October, including ACT Coffee, a programme with UNIDO and the International Coffee Organization focused on Africa’s coffee supply chain, and the Global Coffee Initiative with the World Bank, including the Espresso Fund. Nestlé announced an additional $1 billion investment in Mexico for 2028–2030, bringing its combined 2025–2030 commitments there to $2 billion. The plans include support for producers, more than 72 million seedlings already distributed, production-line expansion and a new distribution centre.

Elsewhere, Starbucks denied rumours of a merger with Chipotle. Its shares rose 3.9% on 15 October, ahead of fiscal Q4 results due on 29 October. The JDE Peet’s takeover by Keurig Dr Pepper also reached a key milestone, with shareholders able to transfer shares ahead of JDE Peet’s delisting from Euronext Amsterdam.

Farm-level news from major producers

Brazil: The 2026 harvest is complete, with CONAB’s third estimate putting the crop at a record 67.6 million bags. Attention is now turning to the 2027 crop. Flowering has been uneven amid erratic weather, and the conditions during flowering matter: this is when next year’s potential cherry count begins to take shape. El Niño is an added concern.

Vietnam: The 2026/27 robusta harvest is starting. New-crop supply is expected to become more visible from November, with output broadly expected to remain steady.

Colombia: Alongside the lower full-year crop, September production rose 6% year on year. Colombia has overtaken Indonesia as the world’s third-largest coffee exporter. Bogotá will host the World Cup Tasters Championship in 2027.

India: The 2026/27 arabica harvest is underway, starting early in Karnataka after dry, hot weather. White stem borer infestations and rainfall deficits are expected to reduce output by 10–20%; Karnataka’s slump could reach 15–20%, according to the Times of India. A “super El Niño” could add to the risk. Away from the farms, Bengaluru’s Third Wave Coffee partnered with CaratLane on a limited ube drink range, while Goa’s Unseen Assagao marked its first anniversary with its roastery and coffee omakase.

Other origins: Ethiopia’s main harvest is beginning, and buyers of natural Ethiopian coffee are expected to find good supply this season. Honduras and Guatemala anticipate smaller harvests, with major activity beginning in November. In Indonesia, excessive rain is expected to leave 2026 production 20–40% below last season as the second arabica window opens in northern Sumatra. Uganda overtook Ethiopia as Africa’s largest coffee exporter over a six-month period, with 1.6 million bags against Ethiopia’s 1.4 million. Kenya opened its 2026/27 season at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange with a KSh 801 million sale; farmers are planting climate-resilient Ruiru 11 and Batian varieties.

Sustainability & traceability watch

The EU Deforestation Regulation deadline for large and medium operators is 30 December 2026. Less than 75 days away. Micro and small enterprises generally have until 30 June 2027, while soluble coffee has a later date of 30 December 2027. Farms larger than four hectares need polygon geolocation; smaller farms can use point coordinates. The European Commission’s EUDR page outlines the regulation and its implementation.

That makes farm mapping and traceability an increasingly practical part of market access, not just a marketing advantage. Italy’s ACT Coffee is one effort to support a more sustainable African supply chain. Circularity and skills also featured in this week’s news: Huskee’s reusable-cup return system, Smart Bin, won a 2026 Australian Good Design Award, while Oatly and Well Grounded announced a training partnership that aims to support 10,000 UK career opportunities. Grounds for Health marked 30 years, reporting 266,144 women screened and 22,127 treated. The International Women’s Coffee Alliance also unveiled a new logo, representing more than 25,000 members across 40 chapters.

What it means for coffee drinkers

Futures don’t set shelf prices immediately. Coffee may have been bought green weeks or seasons before it reaches a roaster, and the cost of roasting, transport and retail also matters. Still, this week’s rally suggests the cheaper-arabica window opened by Brazil’s big harvest looks less open than it did a month ago.

A few useful ways to explore coffee while the market shifts:

• Look for a named region, farm or producer group to learn where your coffee comes from.

• Try Indian origins such as Araku, Chikkamagaluru and Coorg, each shaped by its own growing conditions and local practices.

• Store beans airtight and away from heat and light.

• Buy fresh quantities you’ll finish while they’re at their best.

For a starting point, explore Woodpeckers Coffee’s guide to single-origin coffee in India. It’s a useful way to discover how origin can shape the character in your cup.