Global Coffee Roundup: 7–13 October 2026

A week of sharp price swings, shifting harvest expectations and growing attention to traceability. While Brazil’s record crop added weight to the supply outlook, weather concerns and a changing calendar of coffee events kept the industry looking ahead.

Prices & market

Coffee prices had a whipsaw week. December arabica jumped 11.90 cents per pound, or 4.1%, on Tuesday, 6 October, settling at 304.45 cents, its first close above 300 cents since early September. The rally didn’t last: by Friday, 9 October, it had fallen to 286.95 cents, below the 1 October close of 288.25 cents. Selling from origins around 304–305 cents helped cap the rise.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 260.59 cents per pound through 9 October, with a daily peak of 269.61 cents on 6 October. Average group prices were 355.99 cents for Colombian Milds, 330.63 for Other Milds, 291.15 for Brazilian Naturals and 168.23 for Robustas.

For the week ending 9 October, March 2027 arabica closed at 279.80 cents per pound and January 2027 robusta at $3,454 per tonne. The December/March arabica spread narrowed to about 7.15 cents from 8.60, suggesting the nearby premium, or backwardation, was easing.

Monday, 12 October, brought a quieter session on thin holiday volume. Arabica edged higher, while January robusta found support near $3,440 per tonne. In Vietnam, domestic robusta prices were around 92,200–93,000 VND per kilogram, up nearly 1.4% that day.

What pushed prices around wasn’t a sudden change in supply. A weaker dollar, a firmer Brazilian real, short covering and concern about 2027 weather all shaped trading. December arabica open interest fell from 80,155 lots on 6 October to 77,003 on 9 October: evidence that positions were being reduced, rather than new buying driving the move. Meanwhile, Central American differentials for Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua rose to their highest or near-highest levels in more than three years amid supply concerns.

The wider backdrop remains a mix of abundant supply and weather risk. The ICO’s September report recorded an 8.7% monthly fall in the Composite Indicator, as Brazil’s record crop reached the market and expected global consumption dipped.

Events & expos

The week’s events reflected growing interest in premium coffee, tea, technology and origin stories. Cafe Show & Tea Show Hanoi ran from 8 to 10 October, with more than 400 brands. Indonesia Coffee Festival took place at PIK 2 from 9 to 11 October, while the Cafe & Coffee Experience ran in Brisbane on 12 and 13 October.

Several events are next on the calendar:

• SCAJ, at Tokyo Big Sight, runs 14–17 October. Visitor information

• Cafés de Colombia Expo, at Corferias in Bogotá, runs 15–18 October. Its programme includes 180 exhibitors, national quality and brewing competitions, a roasters championship and the Festival Coffeeland experience. Event details

• International Coffee Convention, in Trieste, takes place 19–20 October, followed by TriestEspresso Expo from 21–23 October.

• World of Coffee Panama runs 23–25 October.

• East Africa Coffee Markets and Conference, in Nairobi, runs 28–30 October, while Coffee Expo Vietnam, in Ho Chi Minh City, runs 29–31 October.

Across the calendar, the common thread is clear: events are bringing origin identity, brewing education and memorable tasting experiences together, and creating more opportunities for producers and buyers to meet directly.

Farm-level news from major producers

Brazil: The 2026 harvest is essentially complete, and attention has turned to flowering and the 2027 crop. CONAB’s third survey kept the estimate at a record 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% on 2025: 48.2 million arabica bags, up 34.8%, and 19.4 million conilon, down 6.6% amid lower Espírito Santo yields. Rain supported flowering and early fruit set, but high temperatures and dry spells remain concerns, with a strong El Niño on the market’s radar for late 2026. Humidity-related quality issues in this year’s arabica harvest could also widen the gap between fine-cup and commercial grades. September exports reached 3.894 million bags, up 3.1% year on year, while July–September shipments totalled 11.210 million bags, up 15.5%. CONAB’s crop estimate

Vietnam: The new 2026/27 robusta harvest is starting, but erratic Central Highlands rainfall could delay picking and affect quality. Production is forecast to fall around 5% to roughly 30.5 million bags after September exports surged 53%. Domestic prices remain strong.

Colombia: The 2025/26 cycle closed with production down 15% to 12.65 million bags and lower exports, although September production rebounded 6%. Colombia has overtaken Indonesia as the world’s third-largest coffee exporter and continues to emphasise differentiated quality over commodity volume.

India: Karnataka faces a potential 15–20% output slump as erratic weather and El Niño concerns challenge the season’s outlook. The Coffee Board’s initial 2026/27 blossom estimate was 4.04 lakh tonnes: 1.20 lakh tonnes of arabica and 2.84 lakh of robusta. Dry, hot weather brought early arabica picking in Kodagu and Chikkamagaluru, with the main activity expected in late October; robusta picking is expected from mid-December. Meanwhile, India’s coffee exports rose 25% to 2.42 lakh tonnes in the first half of FY27, worth $1.17 billion. The industry is also exploring AI-led mechanisation with IIT Dharwad and IIT Roorkee to help address labour and picking costs as cultivation area in Karnataka stagnates.

Elsewhere: Ethiopia’s 2026/27 harvest has begun, with southern and southwestern growing regions and export routes through Djibouti reported as secure, though input costs are rising. In northern Sumatra, Indonesia’s second arabica window is opening, but excessive rain is expected to leave 2026 production 20–40% below last season. Uganda’s main harvest in Greater Masaka and the southwest has wrapped up after drought and heat affected volumes; firmer global prices helped cushion the impact, and Uganda has now overtaken Ethiopia as Africa’s largest coffee exporter, shipping 1.6 million bags against Ethiopia’s 1.4 million over a six-month period. Kenya opened its 2026/27 season at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange with a KSh 801 million sale. Farmers there are increasingly planting climate-resilient Ruiru 11 and Batian varieties as they contend with weather, disease and input costs.

Sustainability & traceability watch

The European Union Deforestation Regulation deadline for large and medium operators is now less than 80 days away: 30 December 2026. Micro and small enterprises have until 30 June 2027, while soluble coffee falls under the rules from 30 December 2027. Under the requirements, farms larger than four hectares need polygon geolocation; smaller farms can use point coordinates. The European Commission’s EUDR guidance outlines the regulation and its scope.

Europe remains a growing destination for Brazilian coffee, putting buyers in Germany, Italy and Belgium among those likely to ask more detailed traceability questions. Colombia is relatively well placed thanks to established digital systems; other origins are still working to connect smallholder farms, exporters and buyers through consistent data.

What it means for coffee drinkers

Futures prices don’t set the price of a cup, but they do offer a snapshot of how traders view supply and demand. Brazil’s larger crop, and the next Vietnamese harvest, could cool markets. Weather during flowering and the progress of the 2027 crop remain important swing factors.

Traceability is also moving from a marketing advantage toward a condition of market access. A clearly stated region of origin can help you understand where your coffee comes from and what you’re choosing.

A few simple ways to explore:

• Look for a named region or farm, and choose traceable coffee where you can.

• Try coffees from different Indian regions, such as Araku, Chikkamagaluru and Coorg.

• Store beans in an airtight container away from heat and light.

• Buy what you’ll finish while it’s fresh.

For a simple way to taste Indian origins side by side, explore Woodpeckers Coffee’s guide to single-origin coffees.