Global Coffee Roundup: 16–22 September 2026

The global coffee market had a softer week, while weather, harvest progress and new traceability rules continued to shape the industry.

Brazil’s record export pace weighed on prices, but low certified arabica stocks offered a reminder that physical availability and future supply expectations weren’t telling exactly the same story. At farm level, weather remained mixed: helpful in some regions, disruptive in others.

Here’s what mattered between 16 and 22 September 2026.

Prices & market

Coffee prices continued their three-week sell-off during the period.

• New York arabica, December delivery, hovered around 276 US cents per pound after testing the 275-cent level midweek.

• Prices reached roughly three-month lows by 22 September.

• London robusta, September delivery, traded near US$3,307 per tonne, down from approximately US$3,366 earlier in the week.

• Vietnamese domestic coffee prices stayed relatively steady near 93,700 VND per kilogram.

The main pressure came from Brazil, where exports and crop expectations pointed to a large supply year.

Brazil’s 2026/27 crop forecasts ranged from 71.9 million to 77.2 million bags, depending on the estimate. The USDA forecast record global production of 189.7 million bags for the same crop year.

August exports added to the bearish mood. Brazil shipped a record 4.155 million bags, up 31% year on year. Strong shipments suggested that coffee was moving steadily into the international market, even as traders watched for further deliveries into exchange warehouses.

There were still some important counterpoints:

• ICE-certified arabica stocks remained near 27-year lows.

• The International Coffee Organization estimated a global surplus of around 3 million bags for 2025/26.

• Weather risks hadn’t disappeared, particularly with El Niño concerns building ahead of Brazil’s next flowering period.

In short, the market was balancing abundant expected production against tight certified stocks and weather uncertainty. That tension kept prices volatile, even as the general direction remained weaker.

Events & expos

The coffee events calendar stayed busy as the industry moved towards a major October programme.

Coffee Europe Expo

Coffee Europe Expo wrapped up from 15–17 September in Nadarzyn, near Warsaw, Poland. The event brought together coffee businesses, equipment suppliers, roasters and professionals from across the European market.

The focus remained broad, covering:

• Coffee sourcing and processing

• Roasting and brewing equipment

• Hospitality and café operations

• Packaging and supply-chain services

• New approaches to specialty coffee

Events coming up

Several major gatherings were scheduled for October:

• Indonesia Coffee Festival: PIK 2, Indonesia, 9–11 October

• SCAJ 2026: Tokyo Big Sight, Japan, 14–17 October

• Cafés de Colombia Expo: Bogotá, Colombia, 15–18 October

• International Coffee Convention: Trieste, Italy, 19–20 October

• TriestEspresso Expo: Trieste, Italy, 21–23 October

• World Barista Championship and World of Coffee Panama: Panama City, 22–25 October

• East Africa Coffee Markets and Conference: Nairobi, Kenya, 28–30 October

World of Coffee Panama was expected to be one of the biggest events of the month, with approximately 13,000 attendees and more than 320 exhibitors from over 30 countries. Its location in a coffee-producing country gave the event a particularly strong origin focus.

The programme was expected to bring producers, exporters, roasters, baristas, equipment makers and sustainability specialists into the same conversation.

Farm-level news from major producers

Weather and crop conditions remained uneven across the main producing regions.

Brazil

Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was essentially complete. Arabica harvesting was finishing, while the Cerrado Mineiro region had reached approximately 99% completion.

The crop was expected to be a record, although winter rains had affected premium quality in some areas by slowing drying and complicating post-harvest handling.

The country also experienced new weather concerns in September. Hail affected at least ten municipalities in southern Minas Gerais, including:

• Varginha

• São Tomé das Letras

• Alfenas

• Três Corações

The damage was still being assessed, but early estimates suggested losses of 15–20% in affected areas. The immediate concern was damage to flowering and the possible impact on the 2027 crop.

Early flowering also suggested that the next harvest could arrive sooner than usual in some areas. That timing could influence labour, logistics and the supply of fresh coffee in the months ahead.

Vietnam

Heavy rain and flooding in the Central Highlands, particularly in Dak Lak and Gia Lai, raised concerns ahead of the harvest.

The rainfall had also supported cherry development, so the effects were mixed. Growers and local authorities were watching whether continued wet conditions would create problems with:

• Access to farms

• Soil erosion

• Disease pressure

• Cherry quality

• Drying and processing after harvest

Robusta ICE stocks reached approximately 9.5-month highs, adding to the sense that near-term robusta availability remained comfortable.

Colombia

Colombia’s main 2026/27 harvest was about to begin, but expectations were smaller.

Full-year 2026 production was seen at approximately 12.5 million bags, around 8% lower than the previous year. Weather and pest pressure had also raised quality concerns in some growing areas.

For Colombian producers, the coming harvest was expected to be closely watched for both volume and cup quality.

Ethiopia

High cherry prices had squeezed exporter margins, particularly for washed coffee, where processing costs were higher.

Ethiopia was also rolling out a national traceability platform to support compliance with the European Union Deforestation Regulation. The system was intended to help connect coffee shipments with farm-level information and production locations.

Uganda

A prolonged period of drought and heat reduced processing yields and quality by approximately 10%. July export volumes fell by around 15%.

Authorities encouraged growers to remain resilient as farms faced the combined pressure of weather stress, higher production challenges and uncertain market conditions.

India

India experienced a lopsided monsoon. Dry spells in Hassan, Kodagu and Chikmagalur placed stress on arabica plants and increased the risk of white stem borer. Robusta appeared more resilient.

The Coffee Board’s post-blossom projection placed 2026/27 production at around 4.04 lakh tonnes, although some analysts expected a decline of approximately 4%.

Other developments included:

• A proposed Rs 2,500-crore, 10-year climate-resilience plan for Wayanad

• A long-term target for the Araku Valley to reach 50,000 tonnes by 2047

• Continued export support from trade agreements with the UK and EFTA countries

For drinkers, India’s regional diversity remained one of the most interesting parts of the market, with major differences between coffees from the Western Ghats, Eastern Ghats and other growing regions.

Sustainability watch

The biggest sustainability deadline remained the EUDR compliance date of 30 December 2026.

The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation required coffee entering the EU to be traceable to the land where it was grown and shown to be free from deforestation after the relevant cut-off date.

During the week, several developments highlighted how the industry was preparing:

• Ethiopia was rolling out a national traceability platform.

• Uganda held geolocation meetings with buyers and supply-chain partners.

• Ecuador continued developing a satellite-monitored, deforestation-free agroforestry model.

• Kenya’s Kiganda Coffee Estate earned Africa’s first Rainforest Alliance regenerative certification.

Traceability was becoming more than a paperwork exercise. It increasingly involved farm mapping, satellite data, land-use records and stronger communication between farmers, exporters, importers and roasters.

For smallholders, the challenge was making sure new compliance systems didn’t create extra costs or exclude farms that lacked digital tools. Buyer support, shared platforms and practical training remained essential.

What it meant for coffee drinkers

Market prices didn’t always translate directly into the price of a cup. Roasting, transport, wages, packaging, rent and café operations all played a part. Still, the week’s news offered a useful reminder that every coffee depended on a much larger chain.

A few simple habits helped drinkers engage with that chain:

• Know the origin. Look for the country, region or estate where the coffee was grown.

• Store beans well. Keep coffee in an airtight container away from heat, light and moisture.

• Buy traceable coffee. Roasters that share origin and sourcing information made it easier to understand where value was going.

• Try different Indian regions. Coffees from Araku, Chikmagalur, Coorg and other Indian origins offered noticeably different flavours and processing styles.

• Use coffee before it goes stale. Buying an amount you could finish while fresh helped reduce waste.

For readers exploring Indian-grown coffee, Woodpeckers Coffee’s origin selection offered one place to start.

The week ended with a softer market, a large Brazilian crop outlook and plenty of uncertainty around weather. At the same time, traceability and regenerative farming continued to move from long-term goals into everyday coffee business.

For coffee drinkers, that meant more reasons to pay attention to origin, farming conditions and the people behind each cup.