Global Coffee Roundup: 21–27 October 2026

Coffee’s big themes this week were familiar, but far from settled: tight arabica stocks, an approaching robusta harvest, weather worries and a growing focus on traceability. Meanwhile, coffee professionals met in Panama, Trieste and London, and farmers in major producing countries weighed strong prices against rising climate and crop risks.

Prices & market

Arabica futures spiked early in the period. The ICE December contract reached 315.70 cents per pound on 19 October, a one-month high and a 3.3% rise for the day. Low certified stocks and renewed El Niño concerns helped fuel the move. But analysts said the rally was driven largely by short covering, not a sudden change in the amount of coffee available.

Prices then eased as traders took profits. More than 28,000 bags appeared pending grading at ICE on Tuesday, the highest level in over a month. By Friday’s close, arabica was around 307.45 cents per pound, retaining a modest weekly gain of roughly 1.4% and staying above $3.00. The World Coffee Index weekly recap tracks the swing.

The wider market picture remained mixed:

• The ICO composite indicator was around 270.31 cents per pound, with Colombian Milds at 370.53, Other Milds at 350.06 and Brazilian Naturals at 308.77.

• Robusta weakened as certified stocks rose to 13-month highs and traders looked ahead to Vietnam’s incoming harvest. The London January contract moved down towards US$3,240 per tonne by the end of the week.

• JM Smucker, whose brands include Folgers and Café Bustelo, postponed planned retail price cuts, citing the direction of futures. Lower supermarket prices may take time to arrive.

• Nestlé reported Q3 organic sales growth of 4.0%, with coffee sales in North America growing after price increases across Starbucks and Nescafé brands.

• De’Longhi increased its stake in the professional division that includes La Marzocco and Eversys to 88.02%. The deal was completed on 16 October for €662.5 million.

Attention now turns to Starbucks, which is due to report Q4 and full-year 2026 results after market close on 29 October. The results may offer a useful read on how customers are responding to higher menu prices. Starbucks’ investor announcement has the call details.

Events & expo

The World Barista Championship ran from 22–25 October alongside World of Coffee Panama in Panama City. It was the first time both events were held in Latin America, bringing national champions from around the world to a region known for competition-grade Geisha coffee. The championship’s official event page has more on the competition.

In Europe, TriestEspresso Expo ran from 21–23 October in Trieste. The trade event brought together coffee businesses for B2B meetings, SCA competitions and sessions covering topics including EUDR and packaging regulation. London hosted the World Coffee Innovation Summit on 21–22 October, with a focus on building resilience in coffee and cocoa supply chains through climate, finance and practical investment. TriestEspresso and the Innovation Summit share information about their programmes.

Coming up, the East Africa Coffee Markets & Conference takes place in Nairobi from 28–30 October, followed by Coffee Expo Vietnam in Ho Chi Minh City from 29–31 October. The US State Department also announced an $8 million Feed the Future research lab hosted by the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. Its work will include coffee and cacao varieties that can better withstand disease and drought, along with improved farm management and post-harvest processing.

Farm-level news from major producers

Brazil: Exports in the first quarter of the 2026/27 coffee year, July to September, reached 11.2 million bags, up 15.5% year on year and the second-highest first quarter since 1990. Only the 12.2 million bags shipped in 2024/25 were higher. Flowering for the 2027/28 crop has started well, with good fruit setting reported, but producers remain alert to heat and possible El Niño conditions that could cause fruit loss and lower yields.

Quality lots are also drawing record prices at ACE auctions. A lot from Fazenda Santuário Sul in Carmo de Minas sold for US$200 per pound, while a Fazenda Sertãozinho lot from Orfeu fetched US$151 per pound. Both were record prices for Brazilian coffee at ACE auctions. Expocacer president Mariana Velloso Heitor was also named among Forbes Brazil’s 100 most influential women in agribusiness.

Vietnam: The 2026/27 robusta harvest is underway in Dak Lak, with activity expected to peak from late October into early November. Domestic prices steadied around 89,500 VND per kilogram after dipping below 90,000. Many farmers are holding back from early sales while prices remain uncertain. Production forecasts differ: some point to a record 32.5 million bags, while others expect a decline of around 6.9%.

Colombia: The 2025/26 coffee year closed with production down 15% to 12.65 million bags. September brought a brighter signal: production rose 6% year on year to 1.21 million bags, while exports were up 9%. Producers are looking for a second-half rebound, though El Niño remains a risk for flowering. Exporters have also called on the government to address freight costs, security and port procedures. The Colombia Legends auction, featuring 15 lots from producers including Nestor Lasso and Jhonatan Gasca, is scheduled for 16 November.

India: Karnataka’s arabica harvest is beginning early amid irregular rainfall and heat. The Coffee Board initially projected 84,015 tonnes for the state, but the Karnataka Planters Association expects a 15–20% decline, citing white stem borer and climate stress. The association also noted that Karnataka’s coffee-growing area has remained stagnant. Across the country, robusta accounts for roughly seven of every ten tonnes in 2026/27 estimates.

Araku Valley coffee, meanwhile, continues to attract specialty attention. A farmer-first approach that pays premiums for high-scoring lots offers a useful reminder that quality and farm livelihoods are closely linked. Woodpeckers’ own sourcing includes organically grown coffee from tribal farmers in Araku, alongside a long heritage of coffee growing in Sakleshpura, Karnataka.

Elsewhere: Ethiopia’s coffee authority says more than 99% of the country’s coffee farms are deforestation-free and points to its digital traceability platform, though concerns remain about smallholders being excluded from European markets. Uganda’s EUDR action plan is progressing, but farmer registration has been slow. Indonesia is using new traceability requirements to strengthen land legality and supply-chain governance. In Central America, Costa Rica has launched an anime-inspired “Producers of Wellbeing” campaign aimed at coffee drinkers in Japan and South Korea. Kenya is also part of the wider conversation on farm registration and market access.

Sustainability & traceability watch

New Eurostat figures show that EU coffee imports reached 2.9 million tonnes in 2025, 7% higher than in 2015. Over the same period, the import bill climbed from €8.6 billion to €18.7 billion. In other words, the volume grew steadily, while the value rose much faster. Eurostat’s update provides the figures.

The EUDR deadlines remain 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators, 30 June 2027 for micro and small operators, and 30 December 2027 for soluble coffee. The European Commission’s regulation page explains the rules and implementation.

Traceability is also becoming part of day-to-day supply-chain work. The European Coffee Federation has published guidance on container handling and documentation to help protect coffee quality in transit. In Vietnam, an EU-backed Sustainable Coffee Exchange project with JDE Peet’s and SNV is supporting 65 coffee businesses towards ESG and EUDR standards through 2029.

Elsewhere in the industry, Blue Bottle has moved away from making oat milk the default in US cafés, citing customer preferences and order accuracy. It’s a small example of how businesses are reassessing the details of sustainability initiatives as costs and customer habits change.

What it means for coffee drinkers

Arabica remained above $3 per pound in the latest reported close, and Smucker’s postponed price cuts suggest supermarket coffee won’t get cheaper straight away. Robusta’s decline could ease costs for some blends and instant coffee, but it doesn’t guarantee a quick change at the checkout.

A few simple ways to make the most of your coffee:

• Choose coffee you genuinely enjoy. A bag you’ll look forward to brewing is a better hedge than chasing short-term price changes.

• Look for origin details. A named region or producer group can tell you more about the coffee’s journey.

• Store beans well. Keep them sealed and away from heat, light and moisture.

• Explore Indian origins. Araku and Karnataka coffees offer different stories and cup profiles. Start with our guide to single-origin coffee options in India.

Next week, we’ll be watching Starbucks’ earnings, arabica’s ability to hold above $3, how the Barista Championship shapes interest in Panama Geisha, and the conversations at the Nairobi and Vietnam events.