Global Coffee Roundup: September 16–22, 2025

What a week it's been in the coffee world! From price rollercoasters that'd make any trader seasick to some promising policy developments, September 16-22 delivered more drama than a telenovela. Let's dive into the key happenings that are shaping our beloved industry.

Coffee Prices Go Wild: $4.24 and Then the Drop

If you thought coffee prices were unpredictable before, this week proved they can be absolutely bonkers. On September 16th, coffee futures shot up to $4.24 per pound – just shy of that record-breaking $4.30 we saw back in February. For a moment there, it felt like we were witnessing history in the making.

But here's where it gets interesting (and a bit scary, honestly). Just two days later, on September 18th, the market experienced its biggest single-day plunge since 2008, dropping a whopping 9%. That's the kind of volatility that makes seasoned traders break out in cold sweats and reach for their backup espresso.

What caused this dramatic swing? It's a perfect storm of factors, really. Brazil's ongoing weather concerns, increased speculative activity, and algorithmic trading all played their parts in creating this market chaos. The exchanges even made it more expensive to maintain positions, which sent the speculative money running for the hills.

The Speculation Problem Gets Real

Speaking of speculators, this week really highlighted how much non-coffee folks are messing with our market. We're talking about investors who couldn't tell an arabica from a robusta but are throwing money around like confetti, hoping to cash in on price swings.

These financial players aren't interested in actually receiving coffee (imagine their surprise if they had to take delivery of a container full of green beans!). They're purely in it for the profit, and their activities are making an already uncertain market even more volatile.

For those of us actually in the coffee business – farmers, traders, roasters, and everyone in between – this speculation is creating real headaches. It's tough to plan when prices are bouncing around like a ping-pong ball in a hurricane.

EUDR Updates: The Compliance Clock Keeps Ticking

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room that's been keeping coffee professionals up at night (and not just from caffeine): the EU Deforestation Regulation. The European Commission is proposing to delay the law again, after last year’s pushback from 2024 to December 2025.

• The new entry-into-force date may slip by roughly another year while the EU sorts out IT platform and operational issues.

• Commissioner Jessika Roswall confirms this intention in a letter to Parliament and the Council, highlighting concerns about how the compliance platform will function for stakeholders, including coffee producers.

• The Commission also says it may consider “simplifying” parts of the regulation during the delay. Some MEPs have called for practical changes like a “zero-risk” exemption category for certain countries, but nothing is approved.

• Even as trade talks continue (e.g., with Indonesia), EUDR compliance is still required.

• Importers and producers should keep monitoring updates, since the final timeline and rules aren’t fully set yet.

What does this mean on the ground? For trading houses like ours, we’re staying the course: continuing due diligence investments, keeping farm-level geolocation data clean, and working closely with origin partners so we can adapt quickly if (or when) the EU finalizes a new date. In short, don’t pause your prep – use the extra time to tighten traceability and farmer onboarding.

Source: https://www.euractiv.com/news/eu-set-to-propose-new-delay-to-anti-deforestation-rules/

Tariff Relief: A Bipartisan Breakthrough

Here's some genuinely good news that had the industry breathing a collective sigh of relief. Representatives Don Bacon (R-Nebraska) and Ro Khanna (D-California) announced plans to introduce bipartisan legislation that would exempt coffee from tariffs. Yes, you read that right – bipartisan support for coffee!

The proposed bill would cover green coffee, roasted coffee, and even coffee-containing beverages and byproducts like cascara. This is huge news considering that tariff threats have been hanging over the industry like a dark cloud since April.

The market responded positively to this news on Friday, with prices stabilizing somewhat after the week's earlier volatility. It's a reminder that sometimes, just sometimes, politicians can agree on something that makes perfect sense – like keeping coffee affordable and accessible.

Brazil's Continued Challenges

Our friends in Brazil are still dealing with some serious headaches, and since they're the world's largest coffee producer, their problems become everyone's problems pretty quickly. The latest export data shows continued declines, particularly in shipments to the United States, which is adding fuel to the supply concern fire.

The big question mark hanging over everything is the upcoming harvest and whether Brazil's rainy season will be adequate to replenish key growing regions after the drought conditions earlier this year. Weather forecasters are offering conflicting predictions, which isn't helping market confidence one bit.

Brazilian coffee farmers are caught between rising production costs and uncertain weather patterns. Many are already making tough decisions about replanting and investment for next season, knowing that today's choices will impact global coffee supplies for years to come.

Expo Season Heating Up

It's expo season, folks! The World of Coffee expo in Barcelona wrapped up this week with record attendance, showcasing everything from cutting-edge processing equipment to innovative packaging solutions. The sustainability pavilion was particularly busy, with lots of buzz around regenerative agriculture and carbon-neutral shipping options.

The standout theme across all the exhibitions? Technology integration. From blockchain traceability systems to AI-powered quality grading, the industry is embracing tech solutions faster than ever. It's exciting to see how innovation is helping address some of our biggest challenges, from supply chain transparency to quality consistency.

Next up, we've got the Specialty Coffee Expo announcements coming out of Portland, with several sessions dedicated to navigating regulatory compliance – clearly a hot topic for everyone right now.

Vietnam's Quiet Success Story

While everyone's been focused on Brazil's struggles, Vietnam has been quietly chalking up some impressive export numbers. Their robusta exports are performing particularly well in Asian markets, and they're making strategic moves to diversify beyond traditional buyers.

Vietnamese producers have been investing heavily in processing infrastructure, and it's paying off with improved quality scores and premium pricing. It's a good reminder that the global coffee map is constantly shifting, and smart investments in quality and infrastructure can really pay dividends.

Looking Ahead: What This Means for Coffee Professionals

As we wrap up this wild week, a few key themes are emerging that'll likely shape the coming months:

• Volatility is the new normal – Market swings aren't going anywhere, so building flexibility into business models is crucial • Compliance requirements will keep evolving – EUDR is just the beginning; more regulations are coming down the pipeline • Technology adoption is accelerating – Companies that embrace digital solutions are gaining competitive advantages • Supply chain resilience matters more than ever – Diversification and strong relationships are proving their worth

For coffee trading houses, roasters, and retailers, this means staying agile, investing in relationships, and keeping a close eye on regulatory developments. The industry is changing fast, but for those willing to adapt, there are plenty of opportunities ahead.

The week of September 16-22 will be remembered as another reminder of just how dynamic and interconnected our global coffee industry really is. From trading floors in New York to coffee farms in Brazil, from EU regulatory offices to expo halls in Barcelona – everything's connected, and every development ripples through the entire supply chain.

Stay tuned for next week's roundup, where we'll be keeping an eye on harvest reports, regulatory updates, and whatever other curveballs the coffee world decides to throw our way!